Energy, forest, and indoor air pollution models for Sagarmatha National Park and Buffer Zone, Nepal

This paper presents the results of management-oriented research on energy, forest, and human health issues in a remote mountain area, the Sagarmatha National Park and Buffer Zone (SNPBZ), Nepal. The research was based on a broader, integrated participatory framework ultimately intended for use in adaptive management. The present study focused on the application of a participatory modeling framework to address problems related to energy demand and consumption, forest condition, and indoor air pollution, which were defined by the stakeholders as important issues to be addressed. The models were developed using a generalizing design that allows for user-friendly adaptation to other contexts (free download at http://hkkhpartnership.org). Moreover, we simulated management scenarios in collaboration with all modeling actors with the aim of building consensus on the understanding of the system as well as supporting decision-makers' capacity not only to respond to changes, but also to anticipate them. Importantly, the system dynamics assessment found that the SNPBZ forests are affected by an increasing demand for fuelwood (occurring due to tourism growth), as one of the main sources of energy. Selected forests show an average reduction of 38 in forest biomass from 1992 to 2008. This shows that the business-as-usual scenario is unlikely to result in the preservation of the current forest status; in fact, such preservation would require 75 of fuelwood to be replaced with alternative energy sources. At the same time, a 75 reduction of fuelwood use (and an 80 reduction of dung use) would reduce indoor carbon monoxide (CO) concentrations to the standard limits for CO exposure set by the World Health Organization

Fuzzy Approach Analyzing SEIR-SEI Dengue Dynamics

Dengue fever is a mosquito-borne infectious disease threatening more than a hundred tropical countries of the world. The heterogeneity of mosquito bites of human during the spread of dengue virus is an important factor that should be considered while modeling the dynamics of the disease. However, traditional models assumed homogeneous transmission between host and vectors which is inconsistent with reality. Mathematically, we can describe the heterogeneity and uncertainty of the transmission of the disease by introducing fuzzy theory. In the present work, we study transmission dynamics of dengue with the fuzzy SEIR-SEI compartmental model. The transmission rate and recovery rate of the disease are considered as fuzzy numbers. The dynamical behavior of the system is discussed with different amounts of dengue viruses. Also, the fuzzy basic reproduction number for a group of infected individuals with different virus loads is calculated using Sugeno integral. Simulations are made to illustrate the mathematical results graphically

Ex situ plant conservation initiative in developing country: Nepal as a case study

With the increased loss of plant biodiversity, the ex situ seed conservation has become of strategic importance. International treaties and conventions encourage more developed countries to cooperate in providing financial and other supports for the establishment and maintenance of ex situ conservation facilities in developing countries. In this regard, the Nepal Academy of Science and Technology (Nepal) and the Ev-K2-CNR (Italy) set up the Himalayan Seed Bank, with the goal of establishing ex situ seed conservation facility of rare, endemic and endangered plants in Nepal. Here, we discuss the importance of training on seed curation, management and research for the seed bank operators in developing countries. Particular attention is given to the procedures for providing power supply and for optimizing seed longevity in dry storage. Finally, the importance of duplicates in high-standard international seed banks is also discussed

High Altitude Wetlands of Nepal

Currently there is no precise definition available in the scientific literature for the term high altitude wetlands (HAWs), however Chatterjee et al. (2010) describe HAWs as "areas of swamp, marsh, meadow, fen, peat land, or water located at an altitude above 3,000 m, whether natural or artificial, permanent or temporary, with water that is static or flowing, fresh, brackish, or saline and are generally located at altitude between continuous natural forest border and the permanent snow." HAWs include different categories of water bodies, such as lakes, ponds, rivers, glaciers, and glacial lakes. They are characterized by a unique diversity of water sources, habitats, species, and communities and generally have not been subjected to rampant human interference compared to other wetland ecosystems. Nepal is blessed with the highest peak in the world, Mt. Everest, along with another ten of the fourteen highest peaks, all over 8,000 m. These mountains are the source of many glaciers and lakes in the high altitude regions across the country. Most of the high altitude wetlands in South Asia, including Nepal, lie within the Hindu Kush Himalayan Region that extends over 3,500 km and covers approximately 3.5 million sq. km., acting as a fresh water reservoir to the major river basins such as the Ganges, Indus, Yangtze, Mekong, Amu Darya, and Hilmand (Gujja 2005)